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Intech Insights®

Market Observations

Where Key Market Stress Metrics are Headed Halfway Through 2020

July 27, 2020

We covered in our last blog post how the v-shaped recovery appeared nearly complete through the first half of 2020. Despite a staggering 34% decline, investors poured back in as the “Fed put” took...

What the Mega-Cap, Growth-Led Recovery Means for Markets

July 23, 2020

Investor optimism appears to be on the rise as economies have begun reopening around the world. Both fiscal and monetary stimulus have boosted valuations, and the second quarter saw a dramatic...

Underlying Market Stress Realized in 1Q20

April 27, 2020

We started the year publishing a paper welcoming 2020, and tail risk we’ve seen before. We mentioned that the combination of low relative return dispersion and soaring correlations of stock returns...

When Low Beta Isn't Low

April 15, 2020

The unraveling of beta persistency in March is surprising, but it is only part of the story. An important ramification is a concurrent change in the distribution of betas across the equity market....

When Equity Beta Correlations Collapse

April 13, 2020

A stock’s beta is a reasonably stable attribute and typically only changes very slowly over time. Low-beta stocks generally remain low beta, while high-beta stocks tend to remain high beta. Last...

Has This Coronavirus Taken Us by Surprise?

March 10, 2020

Nassim Taleb popularized the black swan in his eponymous book. He described it as an event that’s highly surprising, highly disruptive, and, in hindsight, deemed obvious by market participants. The...

It’s Time to Challenge Your View on Risk

January 20, 2020

New year, new you, right? Every year I seem to go back to the drawing board and evaluate how I can improve myself. This involves self-reflection and insight into where I am and where I want to be. It...

The Signs of Tail Risk We're Seeing Now

January 8, 2020

Forecasts for 2020 are easy to come by, but market efficiency makes these prognostications difficult to exploit in a directional sense. Instead, by examining the relative behavior of stocks, we...

A Volatile Quarter Underscores Stress

October 15, 2019

Looking at last quarter’s dynamic in U.S. equity markets you would be hard pressed to believe that the S&P 500 Index reached its biggest year-to-date gain since 1997. The S&P 500 posted 11 moves of...

Stress Signals Emerge in Rising Equity Markets

July 25, 2019

Global equity markets had their best first-half of the year performance in 33 years, largely attributable to the U.S. market. However, caution signals are popping up. The S&P 500 Index gained 18.5%...