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Welcome. This website is intended solely for the use of institutional investors, consultants and other professionally recognized financial intermediaries in specific countries. Intech Investment Management LLC (“Intech”), is an investment adviser registered with the United States Securities & Exchange Commission. Intech is not permitted to offer products and services in all countries. It is the responsibility of prospective investors to inform themselves of and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdictions, including the legal requirements and tax consequences within the countries of their citizenship, residence, domicile and place of business with respect to the acquisition, holding or disposal of shares or securities, and any foreign exchange restrictions that may be relevant thereto. The products and services referred to in this website are not offered to any person or entity in any jurisdiction where the advertisement, offer or sale of such products and services is restricted or prohibited by law or regulation or where we would be subject to any registration or licensing requirement not currently held by Intech or our affiliates. If Intech does not offer a website for your country, please visit www.janushenderson.com.

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Global developed equity markets posted strong returns in the first quarter, and some indexes were close to rebounding to last September’s record highs.

The 13.7% gain by the S&P 500 Index was the best first quarter for U.S. equity markets in 21 years. This is particularly notable as it came after a sharp sell-off during the fourth quarter of 2018 when we nearly reached bear market territory. The strong gains have nearly erased all of the losses experienced a quarter ago.

Market Peak Through 1Q19 - S&P 500 Index

The Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor™, a collection of five reliable market stress indicators, portrays a risk-on environment with fewer signs of stress across equity markets than observed in 2018. Global developed equity markets continue to demonstrate the least amount of risk relative to specific regions, with three of five measures at or near median levels. This improvement in market stability from a year ago is most evident in the U.S. equity market, as developed non-U.S. equity markets continue to show signs of significant strain.

Shift in Capital Concentration

The first quarter rally was led by giant technology stocks, however, breath of the market improved from a year ago, with more than 50% of securities outperforming the index in this first quarter, compared to just 39% of stocks during the second and third quarter rallies last year.

EMSM_041719_blog_2

Less Index Efficiency

The largest change since Q4 2018 in all regional markets is a decline in the index efficiency measure in the Intech Equity Market Stress Monitor™, which decreased from extreme readings, a continuation of a trend that began about a year ago. This decline may reflect a less efficient market and increased potential for skilled active managers to deliver improved risk-adjusted returns in the current environment.

Change Return Correlations

The global developed equity market, as measured by the MSCI World Index, also experienced a notable change in the correlation of returns risk metric during the quarter. While the change is a move to more typical levels, coming off historical lows just over a year ago, the increase has been abrupt and reflects rising systematic risk in the global developed equity market.

The European equity market is again the developed market region where we observed the most market strain, with three of the five market stress indicators at extreme values. Correlation of returns changed markedly since last quarter, increasing to more typical levels when compared to historical observations. This is a continuation of a trend that began a year ago, when correlations in European equity markets were near the bottom compared to all historical observations.

Emerging markets are now demonstrating more strain than their developed market counterparts, with four of five market stress indicators currently at extreme levels. The increase in skewness of returns now places the measure in the top decile compared to all historical observations. This increase reflects signs of extreme optimism and a tendency to react more strongly to positive news in this segment.

Any extreme – not only high, but also low – should be taken as a warning that a return to the norm may shock the market and be a source of volatility. We’ve observed a number of such changes this quarter.

Quarterly Report Download the latest Intech Equity Market Stress MonitorTM update. Download Now

 

The views presented are for general informational purposes only and are not intended as investment advice, as an offer or solicitation of an offer to sell or buy, or as an endorsement, recommendation, or sponsorship of any company, security, advisory service, or fund. Nor do they purport to address the financial objectives or specific investment needs of any individual reader, investor, or organization. The views are subject to change at any time based upon market or other conditions, are current as of the date indicated, and may be superseded by subsequent market events or other conditions.
The information, analyses and/or opinions expressed are for general information only, and are not intended to provide any specific financial, economic, tax, legal, investment advice, or recommendations for any investor. It should not rely on as the sole basis for investment decisions. While every attempt is made to ensure that all information is accurate, there is no representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy and completeness of the statements or any information contained in this article. Any liability therefore (including in respect of direct, indirect, or consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investing involves risk, including fluctuation in value, the possible loss of principal, and total loss of investment.

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